Sadly typical of HN today that a topic that is interesting technically and politically neutral (the challenge of accurate polling) is derailed up top with an inaccurate culture war comment (there is no correlation between when a Dem condemned violent protest and whether they won their election).
FWIW, Shor’s theory about poll respondents is shared by Robert Cahaly at Trafalgar, but Trafalgar polls missed badly too in 2020 but in the opposite direction. So either that’s not actually the critical factor, or it’s not possible to control for this factor in any sort of reliable way. I find that far more interesting than Shor’s personal HR problems.
FWIW, Shor’s theory about poll respondents is shared by Robert Cahaly at Trafalgar, but Trafalgar polls missed badly too in 2020 but in the opposite direction. So either that’s not actually the critical factor, or it’s not possible to control for this factor in any sort of reliable way. I find that far more interesting than Shor’s personal HR problems.