They've made a terribly flawed assumption which drives that 90% number. VE is modeled using a beta binomial model with a fixed prior of an infection rate of 1.5% per year. Obviously this number is going to vary a lot depending on the sample. [1]
By putting a fixed point vs the appropriate wide ranging distribution as the prior, the model scores the results far higher than otherwise.
This is a non-result and it was wildly inappropriate to publish this as proof of any finding.
By putting a fixed point vs the appropriate wide ranging distribution as the prior, the model scores the results far higher than otherwise.
This is a non-result and it was wildly inappropriate to publish this as proof of any finding.
[1] https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591... Page 15