Biden will be the First Democrat since Grover Cleveland to take office without a Democratic Senate. The House majority is smaller. So his mandate is effectively toast. Another interesting historical fact. America has never elected 4 consecutive 2 term presidents. If Trump would have been elected it would have been the first time in US history that this has happened. This election wasn't a blue wave by any means, Trump underperformed House Republicans in many swing states implying this was more of a personal decision rather than political.
What do I see changing? Not much:
- foreign policy: policy changes with Syria and Iran
- China: An end to tariffs
- local changes: No more federal opposition to safe injection sites in San Francisco
- federal taxes could still go up, the Senate has two liberal Republicans who could deliver tax increases to Joe
- expanded federal regulations that do not require changes to the law
What will likely not happen:
- PR and DC becoming states is no longer plausible
- packing the Supreme Court is no longer plausible
- a green new deal or expansions to entitlements are no longer plausible
- state bailouts are now in question, which could force major structural reforms
What do I see changing? Not much:
What will likely not happen: