I feel like you're kinda right. at least I expect that in the medium term, the average SWE salary will be what it is now (plus inflation), but the regional spread will be much lower. in the long term (and regardless of WFH), I expect software engineers will become more like accountants: valued professionals, but not superstars pulling $200k+.
I also don't think this is unreasonable. we're not entitled to live in the most expensive corners of the world just because we want to. currently engineers in high-COL areas get paid a premium because the company sees value in having offices there and having most people work in the office. once that perceived value-add no longer exists, what entitles you to get paid much more to enable your lifestyle than joe schmoe in iowa who does the same work? if this feels unfair, it sorta calls into question whether it's fair for SWEs to get paid so much more than other professions in the first place.
I also don't think this is unreasonable. we're not entitled to live in the most expensive corners of the world just because we want to. currently engineers in high-COL areas get paid a premium because the company sees value in having offices there and having most people work in the office. once that perceived value-add no longer exists, what entitles you to get paid much more to enable your lifestyle than joe schmoe in iowa who does the same work? if this feels unfair, it sorta calls into question whether it's fair for SWEs to get paid so much more than other professions in the first place.