Nate Silver authored an adjustment to polls used in that model. Polls have more impact if they are more representative of statewide turnout among demographic things he chose like “black” and “low income.” This is why his predictions were so accurate for Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections, and likely why they were so inaccurate in 2016.
Gelman’s own grad student is the only person to have academically published this approach, in a paper about polling Xbox Live users.
These guys sort of make a thing that is the same in many more ways than it is different. Why not just share the code is the biggest question?
Nate Silver authored an adjustment to polls used in that model. Polls have more impact if they are more representative of statewide turnout among demographic things he chose like “black” and “low income.” This is why his predictions were so accurate for Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections, and likely why they were so inaccurate in 2016.
Gelman’s own grad student is the only person to have academically published this approach, in a paper about polling Xbox Live users.
These guys sort of make a thing that is the same in many more ways than it is different. Why not just share the code is the biggest question?