>The most comfortable way to think about risk is to imagine a range of potential consequences that don’t seem like a big deal. Then you feel responsible, like you’re paying attention to risk, but in a way that lets you remain 100% confident and optimistic. The problem with low-probability tail risks is that they’re so rare you can get away with ignoring them 99% of the time. The other 1% of the time they change your life.
The other side of the coin for his implicit argument that you should think about these tail end risks is that they're everywhere and in everything we all do commonly, even in fundamentally non-irresponsible activities. Ie: driving your car daily for errands around town will 99.9% of the time result in errands completed more quickly. 1 out of 1000 times, it could result in you killing yourself or someone else, even if you're always perfectly sober when you drive. Thus, while long tails risks shouldn't be forgotten, giving them too much weight as a basis for decision making could easily paralyze one into forfeiting all kinds of activity or choices. It would become a very constricting way to live a life, very quickly. Magnify this possibility accordingly for people who naturally suffer anxiety issues about life.
The other side of the coin for his implicit argument that you should think about these tail end risks is that they're everywhere and in everything we all do commonly, even in fundamentally non-irresponsible activities. Ie: driving your car daily for errands around town will 99.9% of the time result in errands completed more quickly. 1 out of 1000 times, it could result in you killing yourself or someone else, even if you're always perfectly sober when you drive. Thus, while long tails risks shouldn't be forgotten, giving them too much weight as a basis for decision making could easily paralyze one into forfeiting all kinds of activity or choices. It would become a very constricting way to live a life, very quickly. Magnify this possibility accordingly for people who naturally suffer anxiety issues about life.