It doesn't matter whether the market stays up over 30 years. If it crashes at the wrong time (especially if that's after you've retired) and you have 100K left, you have only 3 years to recover, not 30.
And even if the market recovers in 3 years, by then you're left with a fraction of your capital.
And even if the market recovers in 3 years, by then you're left with a fraction of your capital.