Didn't buy his responses to "What About Volatility?" and "What About Crashes?"
He talked about averages of historical data that include crashes. Sure.
But consider the window within the throes of a crash. Someone who always has and continues to spend a fixed amount every year will greatly diminish their capital during those lean years of the market.
An exaggerated hypothetical to make the point:
If they have $500K @ 5% and take out $32K a year, they can go over 30 years on their nest egg.
If their nest egg falls to $100K due to a market crash, they have three years of their nest egg left.
He talked about averages of historical data that include crashes. Sure.
But consider the window within the throes of a crash. Someone who always has and continues to spend a fixed amount every year will greatly diminish their capital during those lean years of the market.
An exaggerated hypothetical to make the point:
If they have $500K @ 5% and take out $32K a year, they can go over 30 years on their nest egg.
If their nest egg falls to $100K due to a market crash, they have three years of their nest egg left.