> "The first thing to say is that 72% and 89% can correspond to vote forecasts and associated uncertainties that are a lot closer than you might think."
I'm with Nate Silver on this one, 72% and 89% are as close as 75% and 50% in terms of being double the likelihood for a Republican win.
We will likely never know which model is more accurate but given Nate Silvers history on these predictions I trust him a bit more than others.
I'm with Nate Silver on this one, 72% and 89% are as close as 75% and 50% in terms of being double the likelihood for a Republican win.
We will likely never know which model is more accurate but given Nate Silvers history on these predictions I trust him a bit more than others.