I strongly doubt anyone will ever catch up with TSMC or Samsung at this point. Intel might still have a chance, but it seems to be waning.
Semiconductor manufacturing is very unique in that it is easily the hardest thing we do right now. Even if China snipes all the talent, tools, and process designs, they still need mountains of precise parameters that are unique to the specific installation of each tool at the specific site. Tuning these parameters relative to the process technology can take years and requires the kind of long term, open collaboration & innovation sessions that the CCP seems fundamentally incompatible with.
There are simply so many reasons this type of thing is virtually impossible to steal. If you were to ever physically tour a fully-automated semiconductor factory & experience the depth of the system engineering required to tie everything together, you would realize there is nothing as complex as that system anywhere else in the discipline of engineering.
Semiconductor manufacturing is very unique in that it is easily the hardest thing we do right now. Even if China snipes all the talent, tools, and process designs, they still need mountains of precise parameters that are unique to the specific installation of each tool at the specific site. Tuning these parameters relative to the process technology can take years and requires the kind of long term, open collaboration & innovation sessions that the CCP seems fundamentally incompatible with.
There are simply so many reasons this type of thing is virtually impossible to steal. If you were to ever physically tour a fully-automated semiconductor factory & experience the depth of the system engineering required to tie everything together, you would realize there is nothing as complex as that system anywhere else in the discipline of engineering.