Controversial opinion: Bayes Theorem is overrated. In real life usually we have no idea about priors, and we have close to zero chance to get any good estimate of the true probability of something. But we can still get by fine for the most part, by focusing on limiting possible loss and staying on the safe side with large margins.
Many of the claimed cognitive biases go away under this view. One textbook example of Bayes theorem is how doctors overestimate the probability of being positive for a disease. But what are the priors? Maybe those who visit the doctor did something risky the day before or are feeling funny. Maybe the cost of false positive is negligible compared to the cost of a false negative, etc. People are less stupid than what the TED talk crowd claims.
Many of the claimed cognitive biases go away under this view. One textbook example of Bayes theorem is how doctors overestimate the probability of being positive for a disease. But what are the priors? Maybe those who visit the doctor did something risky the day before or are feeling funny. Maybe the cost of false positive is negligible compared to the cost of a false negative, etc. People are less stupid than what the TED talk crowd claims.