You also need to include inflation. Tax receipts actually fell on an inflation-adjusted basis in 2018. Absent any changes in government policy, you’d expect expenses to roughly follow inflation plus population growth, and revenues to roughly follow GDP.
> The point of the chart going back to WW2 is to show that it's a little more complicated and we can't draw conclusions either way.
I don’t think this is correct. Yes, the economy is complicated. No, that doesn’t mean when cutting taxes we can ignore the resulting increase in the budget deficit. A claim that cutting taxes won’t increase the deficit constrains you to make other claims according to the GDP = C + G + I + X equation, and we should demand that lawmakers be specific about those claims.
As I pointed out, the chart is not really flat. The line actually goes up and down.
> The point of the chart going back to WW2 is to show that it's a little more complicated and we can't draw conclusions either way.
I don’t think this is correct. Yes, the economy is complicated. No, that doesn’t mean when cutting taxes we can ignore the resulting increase in the budget deficit. A claim that cutting taxes won’t increase the deficit constrains you to make other claims according to the GDP = C + G + I + X equation, and we should demand that lawmakers be specific about those claims.
As I pointed out, the chart is not really flat. The line actually goes up and down.