you could simply write a geographic correlation function on income/wealth and race/ethnicity and do just as well at this kind of forecasting, since police find crime where they look, and they tend to look in poorer and non-white areas.
further, we need to disabuse ourselves of the idea that we can predict crimes to any degree beyond random (vs. aggregate stats, like crime rates), because it's tantalizing ideas like that which leads to the slide into surveillance and totalitarianism without any real, positive return to society as a whole.
further, we need to disabuse ourselves of the idea that we can predict crimes to any degree beyond random (vs. aggregate stats, like crime rates), because it's tantalizing ideas like that which leads to the slide into surveillance and totalitarianism without any real, positive return to society as a whole.