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Comment by lubujackson

TSLA in some ways reminds me of Amazon at the beginning. Way overpriced, but kept reinvesting into new things as it went and the stock price kept going up and profits stayed zero forever while the company kept building itself bigger and bigger. So I can see the bull perspective.

However...

Car manufacturing is not the same as slinging books online. Profits are consistently thin and Tesla's only edge is in battery tech and being a status symbol. So it is trying to be the Apple of cars but also grow like Amazon. And their aren't breakeven without credits, so it is kind of like if 2004 Amazon was able to reach breakeven only because Barnes & Noble had to pay Amazon for not having a website.

Also, I am unconvinced that one car brand will be the "Apple of cars" since there is no ecosystem lock-in and at the end of the day it is a fashion/trend symbol - precisely when unemployment is nuts and the economy is in the shitter. It quickly could become more of a overly flashy negative than cool aspirational thing, kind of a rich-is-bad type of reach that Hummer had with gas-is-bad.

Maybe Elon pulls it off, but at this price it is really investing in a future that hasn't been built or even imagined yet.

parent lubujackson 6 years ago

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