This headline doesn’t seem to match the body of the article:
> "The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
> That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.
> And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 "may be considerably less than 1%."
Unless “First Thought” simply refers to people who are unfamiliar with how figures such as CFR are calculated. I’ve been seeing the 1% number repeated by scientific figures for months.
Here is a Medium article from a month ago saying the same https://medium.com/@gidmk/what-is-the-infection-fatality-rat...
> From the 13 studies — including 4 models, 4 observational studies, and 5 pre-prints of one kind or another — there was an overall estimate of 0.75% infection-fatality rate, with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.49% to 1.01%.
> "The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
> That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.
> And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 "may be considerably less than 1%."
Unless “First Thought” simply refers to people who are unfamiliar with how figures such as CFR are calculated. I’ve been seeing the 1% number repeated by scientific figures for months.
Here is a Medium article from a month ago saying the same https://medium.com/@gidmk/what-is-the-infection-fatality-rat...
> From the 13 studies — including 4 models, 4 observational studies, and 5 pre-prints of one kind or another — there was an overall estimate of 0.75% infection-fatality rate, with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.49% to 1.01%.