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Comment by gwern

> But on that day in August, when Muddy Waters tweeted that it would release a report about an accounting fiasco at a London-listed firm, Block noticed an interesting development: the stock of NMC Health dropped. “We had tweeted in advance an innocuous comment about our intention to initiate a campaign the next day on an unnamed London listed firm. NMC happened to drop significantly on the tweet. That’s a pretty strong indication that the market knows something isn’t right at the company, so we took a look….” Block told ET Magazine in an emailed response. What they found was not pretty.

That's the most interesting 'event study', as it were, I've heard of since the Challenger or Alchian's nuclear bomb market study.

It's amazing the things that the market 'knows'. I sometimes wish that event studies could track down the specific traders responsible and understand what exactly they know and how they learned it, because it otherwise is such voodoo.

parent gwern 6 years ago

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