In the discussion in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22934704 patio11 was pilloried for claiming that, We project a true count of over 500,000 infections, including more than 5,000 severe cases, and a breakdown in provision of care (“overshoot”) in Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo, before the end of April.
And yet, according to medical staff, Tokyo is close to a collapse of the medical system. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ says that there are currently over 12,000 reported cases in Japan and this doubled in the last 10 days. So it is likely to be in the 20-25k range by the end of the month. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-virus-deaths-... says that New York reported COVID-19 seems likely to underreport actual cases by a factor of 10. Which puts Japan at the 200,000-250,000. But as widespread reports say, Japan's testing has been extremely anemic. That can easily put us back in the ballpark discussed.
You know, that projection is looking reasonably close for having been made over a month ago.
And yet, according to medical staff, Tokyo is close to a collapse of the medical system. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ says that there are currently over 12,000 reported cases in Japan and this doubled in the last 10 days. So it is likely to be in the 20-25k range by the end of the month. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-virus-deaths-... says that New York reported COVID-19 seems likely to underreport actual cases by a factor of 10. Which puts Japan at the 200,000-250,000. But as widespread reports say, Japan's testing has been extremely anemic. That can easily put us back in the ballpark discussed.
You know, that projection is looking reasonably close for having been made over a month ago.