"When faced with a decision, people may know which choice gives them the best chance of success, but still take the other option."
THIS CAN BE RATIONAL.
"Best chance of success" ignores weightings.
Say Spruce St. is slower than Main St. by 2 mins on a normal day. And Main St. had a 90-min delay yesterday. If there is even a 3% chance that Main St. has a similar delay today, it is smarter to take Spruce St.; even though Main St. has the best "chance" of success (97% of the time you will get home faster with Main St.).
Maybe the actual study does not make this mistake, but the wording of the article certainly does.
"When faced with a decision, people may know which choice gives them the best chance of success, but still take the other option."
THIS CAN BE RATIONAL.
"Best chance of success" ignores weightings.
Say Spruce St. is slower than Main St. by 2 mins on a normal day. And Main St. had a 90-min delay yesterday. If there is even a 3% chance that Main St. has a similar delay today, it is smarter to take Spruce St.; even though Main St. has the best "chance" of success (97% of the time you will get home faster with Main St.).
Maybe the actual study does not make this mistake, but the wording of the article certainly does.