An outright cure at a year strikes me as unlikely, given the record with anti-virals.
But improvements in supportive care (anticoagulants?) and lucky repurposing might win meaningful reductions in morbidity (some permanent) and mortality within months.
I'm not sure how to weight that possibility. (Metaculus has settled on a likely ~5% relative risk reduction for chloroquine, which is no game changer.) But it seems underweighted in general in discussions about different paths to herd immunity.
But improvements in supportive care (anticoagulants?) and lucky repurposing might win meaningful reductions in morbidity (some permanent) and mortality within months.
I'm not sure how to weight that possibility. (Metaculus has settled on a likely ~5% relative risk reduction for chloroquine, which is no game changer.) But it seems underweighted in general in discussions about different paths to herd immunity.