> considering all s-curves are exponentials at the beginning
Sorry, but I hear a lot of people saying this and it's driving me crazy. S-curves are S-curves from the beginning, not exponentials. It can be useful to use an exponential growth model at the beginning of the curve for short-term forecasting, but these two models will diverge dramatically at the S-curve inflection point.
Not that we shouldn't plan as if exponential growth will occur in a crisis like we're in now, but many people I know don't understand these dynamics and it has lead to a lot of undue panic.
Sorry, but I hear a lot of people saying this and it's driving me crazy. S-curves are S-curves from the beginning, not exponentials. It can be useful to use an exponential growth model at the beginning of the curve for short-term forecasting, but these two models will diverge dramatically at the S-curve inflection point.
Not that we shouldn't plan as if exponential growth will occur in a crisis like we're in now, but many people I know don't understand these dynamics and it has lead to a lot of undue panic.