"It may not be surprising that in the exponential growth phase the estimate is very bad, but even in the linear phase (when 40+ points are available) the correct curve has not been found. In fact, it is only once the data starts to level-off that the correct s-curve is found. This is especially unhelpful when you consider that it can be quite hard to tell which part of the curve you on; hindsight is 20-20."
Does this perhaps explain why we are so bad at calling the top of economic bubbles and similar phenomena? Maybe there literally is not enough information until the very end. It's not that we're dumb. It's that we can't do the mathematically impossible.
I have a sense that this might be a very important and profound principle that might explain a lot of seemingly irrational behaviors.
Does this perhaps explain why we are so bad at calling the top of economic bubbles and similar phenomena? Maybe there literally is not enough information until the very end. It's not that we're dumb. It's that we can't do the mathematically impossible.
I have a sense that this might be a very important and profound principle that might explain a lot of seemingly irrational behaviors.