Comment by smoyer

In the U.S., it's pretty broadly assumed that in hot-spots like NYC, the death rate is also being under-counted. Apparently, those who die in their apartments are not added to the official death-toll. Another method for finding these excess deaths is to compare January or February to the rate in the same month of 2019 and then extrapolate the expected death rate for April 2020. This number will obviously be lower than the actual death rate so the difference should be considered COVID-19 related. Note that even this is probably low since other factors like deaths from car accidents (which I would expect to be down this year) aren't considered. Since we're burying many of the dead without testing, I think the best numbers we're going to get will come from statisticians/actuaries.