It’s hacky and I’m happy to be told how wrong it is. But based on these recent antibody studies in Germany, Finland, and now here in CA, I’ve been assuming an actual fatality rate of about 0.4, and thus an actual infected rate of 250x our known deaths, which is a much firmer number.
This is only a small comfort since it means we may have had about 8.75 million infected and presumably now immune in the USA. Or about 2.6%. There’s still a long way to go in that case.
This is only a small comfort since it means we may have had about 8.75 million infected and presumably now immune in the USA. Or about 2.6%. There’s still a long way to go in that case.