Soooo....
- SARS started out with a similar <4% estimated fatality rate and was then revised upwards to anywhere from 9-15% later.
- COVID-19 is caused by a different strain of the same virus as SARS.
- The CFR of SARS and COVID-19 appear to be very similar, and more notably, appeared by be very similar when we had around 8,000 infections which is where SARS ended. (Similar meaning the CFR hovers between 4% and 20% of closed cases.)
How are we so sure that this is any less deadly than SARS?
The above suggests to me one of the two is likely to be true:
1. There could have been many more undetected cases of SARS than we knew about, indicting an IFR much lower than it's recorded CFR.
2. COVID-19 could actually end up having an IFR that is similar to SARS (~10%).
But of course, I am no epidemiologist, so I assume there's a flaw in my logic.
Did I miss something, or is this pretty much the same disease as SARS but with a higher R0?
- SARS started out with a similar <4% estimated fatality rate and was then revised upwards to anywhere from 9-15% later.
- COVID-19 is caused by a different strain of the same virus as SARS.
- The CFR of SARS and COVID-19 appear to be very similar, and more notably, appeared by be very similar when we had around 8,000 infections which is where SARS ended. (Similar meaning the CFR hovers between 4% and 20% of closed cases.)
How are we so sure that this is any less deadly than SARS?
The above suggests to me one of the two is likely to be true:
1. There could have been many more undetected cases of SARS than we knew about, indicting an IFR much lower than it's recorded CFR.
2. COVID-19 could actually end up having an IFR that is similar to SARS (~10%).
But of course, I am no epidemiologist, so I assume there's a flaw in my logic.
Did I miss something, or is this pretty much the same disease as SARS but with a higher R0?