I fail to understand how you can reasonably model an unprecedented event in modern history. We have no data on how people will act under a weeks, even months long lockdown. Will they stay indoors and follow guidelines? Maybe. Will they watch their livelihoods get affected, their mental health deteriorate, or get careless over time and break quarantine? Maybe.
We just don't know because we just don't have the data or heck, even anecdotal evidence from similar events in the past
We just don't know because we just don't have the data or heck, even anecdotal evidence from similar events in the past