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Comment by avigront

I'm skeptical that the public can endure a single 2-3 month lockdown to begin with. But a lot can change in 2 months, so it is far from certain the lockdown will last that long.

For example

- a treatment might be found which reduces the fatality rate, making it a less dangerous disease

- widespread testing might show that a significant portion of the population already had it and were asymptomatic, thus we have herd immunity sooner than expected in places like New York and Spain/Italy

- antibody testing might become mainstream, so if there was a certificate for people who have already gotten it, that subset of the population can return to a normal life.

- the public support for the lockdown evaporates if it goes on for too long and unemployment skyrockets, so the government might move to a more moderate measure - e.g.: only lock down the people at risk, and let everyone else return to a normal life.

- rapid and cheap tests because widespread, so perhaps you can just get tested before boarding a plane, or entering a shopping mall, etc.

parent avigront 6 years ago

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