> “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.”
Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? Where does the idea of 1% come from? Both of those numbers sound ridiculously optimistic to me. Furthermore, death isn't the only negative outcome - what do we know about permanent organ damage (lungs, heart, liver, kidneys) in survivors?
Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? Where does the idea of 1% come from? Both of those numbers sound ridiculously optimistic to me. Furthermore, death isn't the only negative outcome - what do we know about permanent organ damage (lungs, heart, liver, kidneys) in survivors?