The biggest thing I've been trying to get friends to understand (from 2 weeks ago on the we have to shut things down train, and now on the opposite "look not interacting with any other human being for 2 months might not be the best course of action train") is the non-linearity of how infection rate responds to decreasing the amount of social contacts.
ie; in most models you can get about a 50% gain with just a 25% reduction in social contact, after that it is diminishing returns all the way down to the bottom of trying to wring small population level effects out of reducing contacts from "very little to very very little"
In my mind, people are still underestimating the effects of large gatherings (and by large here I even mean 100 people in a nightclub) and overestimating the effects of seeing one friend in your house that sees another one friend the next day etc.
Don't want to get into an overall debate here about what level of distancing is appropriate or acceptable, would like to see an interactive model that does a good job showing how different types of distancing interventions have very different effects and that once you get to a certain point it gets very hard to get much more overall connection out of the system...
ie; in most models you can get about a 50% gain with just a 25% reduction in social contact, after that it is diminishing returns all the way down to the bottom of trying to wring small population level effects out of reducing contacts from "very little to very very little"
In my mind, people are still underestimating the effects of large gatherings (and by large here I even mean 100 people in a nightclub) and overestimating the effects of seeing one friend in your house that sees another one friend the next day etc.
Don't want to get into an overall debate here about what level of distancing is appropriate or acceptable, would like to see an interactive model that does a good job showing how different types of distancing interventions have very different effects and that once you get to a certain point it gets very hard to get much more overall connection out of the system...