Does this mean the mortality rate is, approximately, 10x less than currently estimated?
(86% of cases unreported, eg about 1 in 10 reported, assume that number of unreported fatal cases is 0)
Edit: closer reading suggests the optimism is sadly unwarranted, the headline under-reporting number of 86% is from the early pre-travel ban model, post-travel-ban estimates give a 65% detection rate, combined with the increased number of cases in this later period this implies that naive mortality estimates are more like 2x off than 10x off.
(86% of cases unreported, eg about 1 in 10 reported, assume that number of unreported fatal cases is 0)
Edit: closer reading suggests the optimism is sadly unwarranted, the headline under-reporting number of 86% is from the early pre-travel ban model, post-travel-ban estimates give a 65% detection rate, combined with the increased number of cases in this later period this implies that naive mortality estimates are more like 2x off than 10x off.