So how do you explain South Korea? Their cases have decisively peaked. So one of three things happened;
1) Herd immunity has kicked in, meaning a majority of people have already been infected and are recovering/recovered
2) Containment measures were effective against a highly communicative virus which can live in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces for up to 12 hours.
3) They just stopped testing and/or are lying about the results and are hiding the resulting health care burden.
IMO the only one here that doesn’t require competency on the part of the government is #1, making it by far the most likely scenario.
If #1 is true to any extent, then it means IFR is actually quite low, more like 2009’s H1N1.
The other fundamental question I keep going back and forth on is the final total population infection rate. For H1N1 and other flus it’s usually on the order of 10-30% of the population. (There are arguments why this one might be higher, although I think some people confuse exposure numbers with infection numbers...)
Containment supposedly will not meaningfully reduce this ultimate number but would just slow down how long it takes for everyone to ultimately be exposed.
So while there are very few new cases in China (and they are closing their temporary hospitals) what happens when people go back to work?
1) Herd immunity has kicked in, meaning a majority of people have already been infected and are recovering/recovered
2) Containment measures were effective against a highly communicative virus which can live in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces for up to 12 hours.
3) They just stopped testing and/or are lying about the results and are hiding the resulting health care burden.
IMO the only one here that doesn’t require competency on the part of the government is #1, making it by far the most likely scenario.
If #1 is true to any extent, then it means IFR is actually quite low, more like 2009’s H1N1.
The other fundamental question I keep going back and forth on is the final total population infection rate. For H1N1 and other flus it’s usually on the order of 10-30% of the population. (There are arguments why this one might be higher, although I think some people confuse exposure numbers with infection numbers...)
Containment supposedly will not meaningfully reduce this ultimate number but would just slow down how long it takes for everyone to ultimately be exposed.
So while there are very few new cases in China (and they are closing their temporary hospitals) what happens when people go back to work?