> understand exponential growth
Oh I know what exponential growth is, it is a basic mathematical concept and I'm quite good at math. The thing is, extrapolating the growth rate of new phenomena is not logical. If this isn't intuitive, think of it this way: I have $1 today. I earn $100 and by tomorrow I have $101. I sell my car and the day after tomorrow I have $10,101. Would it make sense to continue projecting my increased asset accumulation at the rate of 10,000% daily for the next 10 years? Of course not, it would mean I would have more assets than exist in the world. Growth rates are higher when numbers are lower and lower when numbers are higher. It's the nature of change in any finite data set.
> roughly 10x worse
According to the WHO Corona virus has a 3% mortality rate, your estimate of 'at least 10x' would mean 500,000 american dead by the end of year, which would require 150,000,000 to be infected this year, or basically, 48%~ of the population getting infected this year.
I'm not saying your wrong, but can you provide a link to a reputable site such as CDC/WHO that supports your claim?
Oh I know what exponential growth is, it is a basic mathematical concept and I'm quite good at math. The thing is, extrapolating the growth rate of new phenomena is not logical. If this isn't intuitive, think of it this way: I have $1 today. I earn $100 and by tomorrow I have $101. I sell my car and the day after tomorrow I have $10,101. Would it make sense to continue projecting my increased asset accumulation at the rate of 10,000% daily for the next 10 years? Of course not, it would mean I would have more assets than exist in the world. Growth rates are higher when numbers are lower and lower when numbers are higher. It's the nature of change in any finite data set.
> roughly 10x worse
According to the WHO Corona virus has a 3% mortality rate, your estimate of 'at least 10x' would mean 500,000 american dead by the end of year, which would require 150,000,000 to be infected this year, or basically, 48%~ of the population getting infected this year.
I'm not saying your wrong, but can you provide a link to a reputable site such as CDC/WHO that supports your claim?