Ask HN: How are moves made in a predictable market?
We are currently witnessing significant shifts in stock markets, perhaps "corrections" due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
I'm not seeking financial advice, rather more interested in the theory. I'm basically confused as to why everyone and their mother isn't currently trying to short the market. My expectation is that the short-term direction of the market is so obvious and predictable that things should have already settled down, some kind of consensus reached. Are the opinions of how bad things simply clashing with predictions of how bad things can get? To me it feels too easy to make decisions within the market right now. Perhaps I am just completely misreading the level of predictability?
I'm not seeking financial advice, rather more interested in the theory. I'm basically confused as to why everyone and their mother isn't currently trying to short the market. My expectation is that the short-term direction of the market is so obvious and predictable that things should have already settled down, some kind of consensus reached. Are the opinions of how bad things simply clashing with predictions of how bad things can get? To me it feels too easy to make decisions within the market right now. Perhaps I am just completely misreading the level of predictability?