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Comment by qqqwerty

It depends on what you expect to happen and what your goals are. If you are trying to 'batten down the hatches' in preparation of a recession + a surge in inflation, then you can invest in TIPS[1]. You can also invest in safe short-term bond funds (if you live in CA, Vanguard has tax-exempt muni bond funds that might be a good solution). You aren't going to make a killing with these investments, but if they keep you ahead of inflation by a few % while all other asset classes are tanking, you would be in a pretty good spot.

On the other hand, if you aren't expecting a recession and are only worried about inflation, probably better to just stay broadly exposed to the stock market (low cost index funds). And if recession is your only concern, then cash or safe bond funds would probably be the best bet.

Personally, I am not too worried about inflation. If you look at where the strongest growth has happened in the last decade, it has been largely concentrated into a handful of 'super' cities (SF, Seattle, etc...) plus China. In the case of the latter, density puts downward pressure on consumption (you can only fit so much crap in a small apartment). And China's 'consumer class' has yet to really materialize. The one caveat, is that due to the wealth imbalance, I think we have seen inflation in things that wealthy people buy (real estate, stocks, art, etc...). But post-globalization, it will likely take a really broad surge in consumer demand to move the needle.

[1] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tips_glan...

parent qqqwerty 6 years ago

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