It seems to me likely that the number of reported cases of this virus is much lower than the actual number. There are various plausible reasons, eg incubation periods, people not going to the doctors with flu like symptoms, authorities wanting to look in control of the situation.
A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people will suffer from it.
A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t underreported in the same proportion as infections.
I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more significant.
[1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by “previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.
A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people will suffer from it.
A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t underreported in the same proportion as infections.
I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more significant.
[1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by “previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.