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Comment by kragen

In 2004 solar power was still far too expensive to be a viable option, to the point where he didn't even bother to mention it: "there is no chance that the renewables, wind, tide and water power can provide enough energy and in time." This is no longer true; installing new photovoltaic generation capacity is now cheaper than continuing to run existing coal plants in much of the world, and although the humans still need to ramp up production capacity to build enough panels, it looks like they are on track to make the switch in the 2020s. The total solar resource is about three orders of magnitude larger than marketed world energy consumption.

We shouldn't fault James for not seeing this in 2004, but now we know he was wrong, as many of us were.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

Edited to add: competitive-bid power purchasing agreements hit a new low this week of US$15.67 per MWh in Qatar https://archive.fo/UBWWi but there are projects in many equatorial parts of the world hitting similar lows. This is a factor of 10 less than what end-users currently pay for electricity in California and roughly a factor of 3 less than the average wholesale cost there.

parent kragen 6 years ago

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