Moore’s law is dying. The transistor and clock speed improvements we saw with regular cycles (33 - 66 - 133 - 266 - 433 - 1Ghz!) hasn’t happened in a while, and throughput improvements have happened by architectural cleverness (some of which you might say contributed to spectre/ meltdown et al).
A really really interesting corollary goes like this:
- Moore’s law delivers a doubling of compute capacity every 2 yrs
- capacity yields efficiency improvements in compute capacity per human being
- more efficiency per human yields net productivity gains per human
- net productivity gains drive economic growth
- therefore Moore’s law or something like it is a critical driver of economic growth
This is a bit scary of an implication - and why as an industry we’re highly incented to come up with something to keep feeding the masses. If we don’t - a key driver of worldwide economic growth will die.
interesting that the article says they’ll keep delivering on the promise - We have to - but is repaint the picture and say that we’re obligated to do so via more exotic software and hardware architectures, so expect to see more purpose built compute in all arenas
A really really interesting corollary goes like this: - Moore’s law delivers a doubling of compute capacity every 2 yrs
- capacity yields efficiency improvements in compute capacity per human being
- more efficiency per human yields net productivity gains per human
- net productivity gains drive economic growth
- therefore Moore’s law or something like it is a critical driver of economic growth
This is a bit scary of an implication - and why as an industry we’re highly incented to come up with something to keep feeding the masses. If we don’t - a key driver of worldwide economic growth will die.
interesting that the article says they’ll keep delivering on the promise - We have to - but is repaint the picture and say that we’re obligated to do so via more exotic software and hardware architectures, so expect to see more purpose built compute in all arenas