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Comment by _Microft

No, not necessarily. Check out these numbers:

Sensitivity is what fraction of the affected people are actually found. Here: 90%, so 10% are missed.

Specificity is what fraction of the unaffected people are detected as such. Here: 95%, so 5% wrongly detected ("false positives").

In Europe, there are 60 cases of lung cancer per 100 000 people.

That makes 54 correctly detected per 100 000, missing 6 cases. That also means 5000 people incorrectly suspected of lung cancer (5% of 100 000).

Update: using the accuracy from the article itself, we would still get a total of 1000 of false negatives (affected but not detected) and false positives (unaffected but suspected). Incidence is still 60/100 000.

parent _Microft 7 years ago

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