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Comment by Certhas

Literally in the first paragraph of the article you cite as problematic it says:

> Like other unstable situations in the region, climate change may be an exacerbating factor in the country’s instability, not a primary cause, and to what extent is uncertain.

It's simply a hard question to quantify the impact of climate change on rainfall. Major effort in the IPCC report just goes into adequately representing the uncertainty in precipitation changes. And this is not hidden it's front and center in the Summary for Policymakers:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINA...

Figure SPM.7

So yeah, people now look for the contribution of climate change to all sorts of things. It will often not be a dominating driver, and often hard to quantify, but I don't see anything terribly problematic here in the sense that the dominant reasons are ignored. (Population growth in this context is often also indirectly taken into account through land change uses, which mostly means turning nature into farmland.)

parent Certhas 7 years ago

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