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Comment by dnautics

"Kurzweil has a solid history of predictions going back at least 21 years"

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2010/01/kurzw...

Confirmation bias. You're not looking hard enough at the stuff he says that didn't come true.

Even so, "past performance is no indicator of future success. You could have said the same thing about the goldilocks economy in 2001 but the notion that the economy could continue exponentially forever was pretty dumb. All I have to say about believing in exponential things, is, please, please consider the bacterial growth curve.

http://faculty.irsc.edu/FACULTY/TFischer/images/bacterial%20...

(that's a log graph) See, if you were an intelligent e coli during growth phase, you might notice that everything was exponential and hunky dory, and there was no end in sight.

parent dnautics 16 years ago

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