2008 and the ensuing recession happened because of an actual event (Lehman) and a credit crisis. I'd say those are 1 in your model. We haven't had anything of that magnitude yet, so I disagree that in today's economy condition 1 is satisfied.
That said, panic is a real component of crises and Trump's ability to shift focus could actually be a real asset, though it will be many years before historians and economists recognize it.
That said, panic is a real component of crises and Trump's ability to shift focus could actually be a real asset, though it will be many years before historians and economists recognize it.