Okay, let’s do the math buddy. Let’s assume the null hypothesis (the market) has a mean return of 10% and vol of 10%. RenTec’s Medallion Fund has made 80% annualized return before fees in the last 20 years. Assuming the market is a random walk (it’s not), the chance of RenTec making >50% (I don’t think they’ve ever made less than that in 20 years) every year for 20 years is...
3.486 x 10^(-91)
The actual probability is a lot smaller btw.
Why do people keep posting this tired argument over and over? It’s not true. There’s no evidence that it is true. The math strongly suggests (see above) that you can beat the market.
3.486 x 10^(-91)
The actual probability is a lot smaller btw.
Why do people keep posting this tired argument over and over? It’s not true. There’s no evidence that it is true. The math strongly suggests (see above) that you can beat the market.