A few comments saying we never really recovered, or, we snapped back and now we’re slowing down back to average growth levels.
I recommend taking a look at this jobs chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV
Then set the time range to be 1997 to present.
What’s remarkable is that the slope of the curve is essentially bimodal. Either the economy is hiring at 200k/month, or it is firing at 200k/month.
The 2008 recession was remarkably bad. We set back jobs growth more than a decade, which had never happened before. Since then we’ve had the longest stretch of time where the economy is in “hiring mode” in history. But there was also no “snap back”, the curve has been going up, but it’s still shifted 10 years to the left.
It’s not clear this stretch of up time has ended yet, but the market is flashing signals that it is more likely to end in the next 6 months than it was a year ago.
With inflation so low, this to me implies there is still slack capacity and we have room to keep the “hiring” mode turned on for a while longer, but the Fed would have to lower rates for that to happen.
Former Fed President Dudley’s comments in his op-ed last week were a shockingly bad look for the Fed. [1] Advocating for intentionally tanking the economy to make the current President look bad undermines the entire Fed governance model.
[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/the-feds-efforts-to-stay-out...
I recommend taking a look at this jobs chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV
Then set the time range to be 1997 to present.
What’s remarkable is that the slope of the curve is essentially bimodal. Either the economy is hiring at 200k/month, or it is firing at 200k/month.
The 2008 recession was remarkably bad. We set back jobs growth more than a decade, which had never happened before. Since then we’ve had the longest stretch of time where the economy is in “hiring mode” in history. But there was also no “snap back”, the curve has been going up, but it’s still shifted 10 years to the left.
It’s not clear this stretch of up time has ended yet, but the market is flashing signals that it is more likely to end in the next 6 months than it was a year ago.
With inflation so low, this to me implies there is still slack capacity and we have room to keep the “hiring” mode turned on for a while longer, but the Fed would have to lower rates for that to happen.
Former Fed President Dudley’s comments in his op-ed last week were a shockingly bad look for the Fed. [1] Advocating for intentionally tanking the economy to make the current President look bad undermines the entire Fed governance model.
[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/the-feds-efforts-to-stay-out...