> Were Beijing to pull the inverse Huawei ban on any company in the West, that company would be dead in a few months no matter what it is.
China can't do any of that because it would harm their own economy far more (what remains of their industrial / trade trust would vaporize further) and it wouldn't likely kill the company they target (unless it was a small hyper dependent company). The US move against Huawei works particularly well because of the US partners willing to go along with it as a group; the same is true of US sanctions. China has very few allies and few global levers.
Plus, the US would respond very harshly and China knows that. China isn't a gentle flower, it isn't avoiding hammering strategic US companies out of the goodness of its heart; it isn't attempting that maneuver because it knows the cost is too high for itself.
The US is one of the least trade dependent nations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-...
And: https://i.imgur.com/7JIIX8Q.jpg
On imports + exports as a share of GDP, the US ranks #6 in the world as least dependent, with those two items making up 27% of the US GDP. China is at 40%. Germany is 87%, France is 63% and the UK is 62% by comparison.
The US is also, essentially, entirely energy self-sufficient, with Canada's help. Something China is nowhere near being. The US could shut off China's access to foreign oil and a lot of coal supply very easily and it would grind up their economy.
Let's run the hypothetical though. Ok, do it to Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Oracle. Those are three of the five largest US companies and four of the largest tech companies.
Might as well also hit Netflix, Adobe, Intuit, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow, Uber, Lyft, Twitter, Snap, Pinterest, Slack, Dropbox, etc.
Also Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental, Phillips 66, Valero, Marathon, EOG.
Run it against JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, NY Mellon, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc.
Next up do Visa, PayPal, Mastercard, Discover, Amex, Square, Stripe.
Then do it to Pfizer, Amgen, Merck, AbbVie, Gilead, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Biogen, Eli Lilly.
Maybe Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrup and General Dynamics.
How about Comcast, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile / Sprint.
Also McDonald's, Yum Brands, Kraft, Mondelez, Coca Cola, Pepsi.
Total result: barely a scratch overall, if that.
Few of these companies, many of which are among the largest corporations on the planet, have a critical (threat-of-death type) exposure to China. A few would lose 5-10% of their businesses and life would continue just fine.
This is the fundamental mistake China made by keeping its economy so restricted and locked down to foreign companies. Most of the US economy doesn't have a critical dependency on China. That's also why the large China tariffs are having near zero inflationary effect and that will continue to be the case. The only serious effect it's having is that it's pushing manufacturing out of China, which was one of the goals.
Also fortunately Taiwan != China
China can't do any of that because it would harm their own economy far more (what remains of their industrial / trade trust would vaporize further) and it wouldn't likely kill the company they target (unless it was a small hyper dependent company). The US move against Huawei works particularly well because of the US partners willing to go along with it as a group; the same is true of US sanctions. China has very few allies and few global levers.
Plus, the US would respond very harshly and China knows that. China isn't a gentle flower, it isn't avoiding hammering strategic US companies out of the goodness of its heart; it isn't attempting that maneuver because it knows the cost is too high for itself.
The US is one of the least trade dependent nations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-...
And: https://i.imgur.com/7JIIX8Q.jpg
On imports + exports as a share of GDP, the US ranks #6 in the world as least dependent, with those two items making up 27% of the US GDP. China is at 40%. Germany is 87%, France is 63% and the UK is 62% by comparison.
The US is also, essentially, entirely energy self-sufficient, with Canada's help. Something China is nowhere near being. The US could shut off China's access to foreign oil and a lot of coal supply very easily and it would grind up their economy.
Let's run the hypothetical though. Ok, do it to Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Oracle. Those are three of the five largest US companies and four of the largest tech companies.
Might as well also hit Netflix, Adobe, Intuit, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow, Uber, Lyft, Twitter, Snap, Pinterest, Slack, Dropbox, etc.
Also Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental, Phillips 66, Valero, Marathon, EOG.
Run it against JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, NY Mellon, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc.
Next up do Visa, PayPal, Mastercard, Discover, Amex, Square, Stripe.
Then do it to Pfizer, Amgen, Merck, AbbVie, Gilead, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Biogen, Eli Lilly.
Maybe Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrup and General Dynamics.
How about Comcast, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile / Sprint.
Also McDonald's, Yum Brands, Kraft, Mondelez, Coca Cola, Pepsi.
Total result: barely a scratch overall, if that.
Few of these companies, many of which are among the largest corporations on the planet, have a critical (threat-of-death type) exposure to China. A few would lose 5-10% of their businesses and life would continue just fine.
This is the fundamental mistake China made by keeping its economy so restricted and locked down to foreign companies. Most of the US economy doesn't have a critical dependency on China. That's also why the large China tariffs are having near zero inflationary effect and that will continue to be the case. The only serious effect it's having is that it's pushing manufacturing out of China, which was one of the goals.
Also fortunately Taiwan != China