Somehow the idea that this is all caused by people applying to more places doesn't cut it to me. It might account for some of it, but not all of it. A lot of this is probably fairly chaotic and complex. For example, the GI bill probably contributed directly somewhat also, but also probably led to cultural shifts because of the veteran population, which then in turn changed career and educational expectations, but the GI bill itself reflects WWII, which also reflects cataclysmic societal changes (that is, WWII caused many significant things, but was also caused by many significant things).
Speaking as someone who has done research on selection and standard testing, and whose first-hand experiences support what I see from the theory and research, this is kind of horrifying, because it inevitably leads to increases in bullshit.
The accuracy of any of the selection methods we use in education is very poor. It just is. Standardized tests, "holistic review", all of it. It's not useless, but it is poor. It's the sort of thing that works well for a certain level of selectivity, but not past it. Once you go past it, you're selecting on well-impressioned noise, and incentivizing bullshit.
Somehow this all seems related in my mind to the rise of concerns about replicability in science, college admissions scams, and the age of fraud in general (https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/04/th...). Something is broken. Probably many things.
Speaking as someone who has done research on selection and standard testing, and whose first-hand experiences support what I see from the theory and research, this is kind of horrifying, because it inevitably leads to increases in bullshit.
The accuracy of any of the selection methods we use in education is very poor. It just is. Standardized tests, "holistic review", all of it. It's not useless, but it is poor. It's the sort of thing that works well for a certain level of selectivity, but not past it. Once you go past it, you're selecting on well-impressioned noise, and incentivizing bullshit.
Somehow this all seems related in my mind to the rise of concerns about replicability in science, college admissions scams, and the age of fraud in general (https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/04/th...). Something is broken. Probably many things.