Cool window into an interesting epistemological model. Considering the null hypothesis: "Damodaran is no better at predicting the market than any other person.", what would be evidence that rejects it?
Presumably not being in concordance with the market is insufficient evidence based off this and sibling comments. I wonder if there is a duration where this will even work.
Does there exist any evidence that would lead one to fail to reject the null hypothesis? Or would this model always reject?
Certainly, our current conclusion must be that Damodaran has poor predictive power over the short-term.
Presumably not being in concordance with the market is insufficient evidence based off this and sibling comments. I wonder if there is a duration where this will even work.
Does there exist any evidence that would lead one to fail to reject the null hypothesis? Or would this model always reject?
Certainly, our current conclusion must be that Damodaran has poor predictive power over the short-term.