From a business perspective, the volatility of Silver's models seem like a feature - they enhance the drama / sensationalism of election coverage. One week, he's telling me candidate X will likely win, the next week it's candidate Y, and I'm on the edge of my seat.
If Silver really believed these probabilities were correct, he should be willing make bets with these odds, otherwise his incentives are distorted.
If Silver really believed these probabilities were correct, he should be willing make bets with these odds, otherwise his incentives are distorted.