Comment

Comment by BeetleB

To be explicit, and using an example similar to the one in the article, if your CI is (2, 40), with the center being 21, there is no reason to believe that the true value is closer to 21 than to, say, 3.

To provide an extreme case, during the Iraq war, epidemiologists did a survey and came up with an estimated number of deaths. The point value was 100K, and that's what all the newspapers ran with. But the actual journal paper had a CI of (8K, 194K). There's no reason to believe the true value is closer to 100K than it is to 10K. Or to 190K.

parent BeetleB 7 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton