Comment Comment by kharms We have some idea of a crash rate for safe airplanes. Something like: P(Crash|Miles Flow & Hull Age)If we assume this airplane is safe, we can apply that probability to it and then ask P(2 Crashes|N Miles & 350 New Planes).You would then have a probability for this just being bad luck, and compare that against your prior that this is a safe plane.I haven’t done the math, but my gut says it would point to grounding the plane. parent kharms 7 years ago
If we assume this airplane is safe, we can apply that probability to it and then ask P(2 Crashes|N Miles & 350 New Planes).
You would then have a probability for this just being bad luck, and compare that against your prior that this is a safe plane.
I haven’t done the math, but my gut says it would point to grounding the plane.