The economist Gary Becker's paper "Crime and punishment: an economic approach" [0] is up there for me.
He argued that prior to committing a crime, the perpetrator weighs the potential benefits of the crime against the probability of being caught and the ensuing severity of punishment. If the benefits exceed the costs, the criminal commits the crime. It is then noted that enforcement costs money. Becker concludes that the maximally efficient way to deter crime is to do relatively little enforcement, but to hand out severe penalties to criminals who are caught.
Becker was a respected economist at the time of publishing this paper. One can always defend a publication like this with the claim that 'it's just a model' but there is some evidence that the theory was used to justify crime policy from the 70's onward.
He argued that prior to committing a crime, the perpetrator weighs the potential benefits of the crime against the probability of being caught and the ensuing severity of punishment. If the benefits exceed the costs, the criminal commits the crime. It is then noted that enforcement costs money. Becker concludes that the maximally efficient way to deter crime is to do relatively little enforcement, but to hand out severe penalties to criminals who are caught.
Becker was a respected economist at the time of publishing this paper. One can always defend a publication like this with the claim that 'it's just a model' but there is some evidence that the theory was used to justify crime policy from the 70's onward.
[0] https://www.nber.org/chapters/c3625.pdf