This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018.
It will be very interesting to see if Apple even supports the iPhone 6 generation of hardware on the next version of iOS. If not, or if the software performance regresses significantly, I would expect the hardware upgrade pressure to really ratchet up again in the fall.
It will be very interesting to see if Apple even supports the iPhone 6 generation of hardware on the next version of iOS. If not, or if the software performance regresses significantly, I would expect the hardware upgrade pressure to really ratchet up again in the fall.
[1] https://bgr.com/2018/09/20/ios-12-speed-test-vs-ios-11-on-ip... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/17/ios-12-makes-your-phone-fa... [3] https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/18/apple-ios12-older-iphone...